Svenska Dagbladet skriver: "Det bästa beviset på Afrikas förvandling är nog finanskrisen, när Afrika söder om Sahara var extremt motståndskraftigt. Tillväxten i många länder i regionen gick ner från runt 6-7 procent till 5 procent – siffror som gjorde världens utvecklade ekonomier blå av avund." Anledningen till att Afrika inte drabbades av finanskrisen är att man är mindre integrerad i den globala ekonomin och att finanssektorn är mycket liten. Att amerikanska banker eller huspriserna i London kraschar har helt enkelt inte så stor betydelse i stora delar av Afrika.
Granskar man BNP-siffrorna närmare så är det väldigt mycket luft.
-Sällan pratas det om att de flesta länder som har fantastisk tillväxt är länder som har haft långvariga inbördeskrig (Sierra Leone, Angola, Mocambique), att man bara tar igen vad man förlorat av decennier av inre krig.
-Mycket av tillväxten drivs av råvaror vilkas priser sätts av internationella marknader och vad landet gör eller inte gör har minimal påverkan på dessa priser. 10 procent av Zambias BNP är gruvor och 14 % av Nigerias BNP är olja och gas. I Zambia beräknas intäkterna av gruvexporten växa med 211 % på fem år.
Så här säger IFADs President, Kanayo F. Nwanze, från Nigeria:
Indeed,
sub Saharan Africa is the only region where the absolute number of
people living in poverty has risen steadily between 1981 and 2010. This
is not a distinction we can be proud of.
Yes, many African economies are growing strongly, but too often this is on the back of extractive industries that do not yield jobs and income for Africa’s poor and hungry. GDP doesn’t mean much when you are talking about indicators of personal poverty.
GDP may have risen in the double-digits for many oil-exporting countries, but paradoxically in the rural areas of the same countries people are as poor today as they were when the first barrel of oil was pumped.
You cannot eat oil – at least not crude oil. You cannot eat diamonds either. You cannot eat gold. Money from extractive industries has not transformed African agriculture over the last 30 years. It has not fed hungry people or developed rural areas.
- See more at: http://www.ifad.org/events/op/2014/agrf.htm#sthash.x3n5PF9K.dpuf
Yes, many African economies are growing strongly, but too often this is on the back of extractive industries that do not yield jobs and income for Africa’s poor and hungry. GDP doesn’t mean much when you are talking about indicators of personal poverty.
GDP may have risen in the double-digits for many oil-exporting countries, but paradoxically in the rural areas of the same countries people are as poor today as they were when the first barrel of oil was pumped.
You cannot eat oil – at least not crude oil. You cannot eat diamonds either. You cannot eat gold. Money from extractive industries has not transformed African agriculture over the last 30 years. It has not fed hungry people or developed rural areas.
- See more at: http://www.ifad.org/events/op/2014/agrf.htm#sthash.x3n5PF9K.dpuf
Indeed, sub Saharan Africa is the only region where the absolute number of people living in poverty has risen steadily between 1981 and 2010. This is not a distinction we can be proud of. Yes, many African economies are growing strongly, but too often this is on the back of extractive industries that do not yield jobs and income for Africa’s poor and hungry. GDP doesn’t mean much when you are talking about indicators of personal poverty. GDP may have risen in the double-digits for many oil-exporting countries, but paradoxically in the rural areas of the same countries people are as poor today as they were when the first barrel of oil was pumped. You cannot eat oil – at least not crude oil. You cannot eat diamonds either. You cannot eat gold.
Indeed,
sub Saharan Africa is the only region where the absolute number of
people living in poverty has risen steadily between 1981 and 2010. This
is not a distinction we can be proud of.
Yes, many African economies are growing strongly, but too often this is on the back of extractive industries that do not yield jobs and income for Africa’s poor and hungry. GDP doesn’t mean much when you are talking about indicators of personal poverty.
GDP may have risen in the double-digits for many oil-exporting countries, but paradoxically in the rural areas of the same countries people are as poor today as they were when the first barrel of oil was pumped.
You cannot eat oil – at least not crude oil. You cannot eat diamonds either. You cannot eat gold. Money from extractive industries has not transformed African agriculture over the last 30 years. It has not fed hungry people or developed rural areas.
- See more at: http://www.ifad.org/events/op/2014/agrf.htm#sthash.x3n5PF9K.dpuf
Yes, many African economies are growing strongly, but too often this is on the back of extractive industries that do not yield jobs and income for Africa’s poor and hungry. GDP doesn’t mean much when you are talking about indicators of personal poverty.
GDP may have risen in the double-digits for many oil-exporting countries, but paradoxically in the rural areas of the same countries people are as poor today as they were when the first barrel of oil was pumped.
You cannot eat oil – at least not crude oil. You cannot eat diamonds either. You cannot eat gold. Money from extractive industries has not transformed African agriculture over the last 30 years. It has not fed hungry people or developed rural areas.
- See more at: http://www.ifad.org/events/op/2014/agrf.htm#sthash.x3n5PF9K.dpuf
Indeed,
sub Saharan Africa is the only region where the absolute number of
people living in poverty has risen steadily between 1981 and 2010. This
is not a distinction we can be proud of.
Yes, many African economies are growing strongly, but too often this is on the back of extractive industries that do not yield jobs and income for Africa’s poor and hungry. GDP doesn’t mean much when you are talking about indicators of personal poverty.
GDP may have risen in the double-digits for many oil-exporting countries, but paradoxically in the rural areas of the same countries people are as poor today as they were when the first barrel of oil was pumped.
You cannot eat oil – at least not crude oil. You cannot eat diamonds either. You cannot eat gold. Money from extractive industries has not transformed African agriculture over the last 30 years. It has not fed hungry people or developed rural areas.
- See more at: http://www.ifad.org/events/op/2014/agrf.htm#sthash.x3n5PF9K.dpuf
Yes, many African economies are growing strongly, but too often this is on the back of extractive industries that do not yield jobs and income for Africa’s poor and hungry. GDP doesn’t mean much when you are talking about indicators of personal poverty.
GDP may have risen in the double-digits for many oil-exporting countries, but paradoxically in the rural areas of the same countries people are as poor today as they were when the first barrel of oil was pumped.
You cannot eat oil – at least not crude oil. You cannot eat diamonds either. You cannot eat gold. Money from extractive industries has not transformed African agriculture over the last 30 years. It has not fed hungry people or developed rural areas.
- See more at: http://www.ifad.org/events/op/2014/agrf.htm#sthash.x3n5PF9K.dpuf
Indeed,
sub Saharan Africa is the only region where the absolute number of
people living in poverty has risen steadily between 1981 and 2010. This
is not a distinction we can be proud of.
Yes, many African economies are growing strongly, but too often this is on the back of extractive industries that do not yield jobs and income for Africa’s poor and hungry. GDP doesn’t mean much when you are talking about indicators of personal poverty.
GDP may have risen in the double-digits for many oil-exporting countries, but paradoxically in the rural areas of the same countries people are as poor today as they were when the first barrel of oil was pumped.
You cannot eat oil – at least not crude oil. You cannot eat diamonds either. You cannot eat gold. Money from extractive industries has not transformed African agriculture over the last 30 years. It has not fed hungry people or developed rural areas.
- See more at: http://www.ifad.org/events/op/2014/agrf.htm#sthash.x3n5PF9K.dpuf
Yes, many African economies are growing strongly, but too often this is on the back of extractive industries that do not yield jobs and income for Africa’s poor and hungry. GDP doesn’t mean much when you are talking about indicators of personal poverty.
GDP may have risen in the double-digits for many oil-exporting countries, but paradoxically in the rural areas of the same countries people are as poor today as they were when the first barrel of oil was pumped.
You cannot eat oil – at least not crude oil. You cannot eat diamonds either. You cannot eat gold. Money from extractive industries has not transformed African agriculture over the last 30 years. It has not fed hungry people or developed rural areas.
- See more at: http://www.ifad.org/events/op/2014/agrf.htm#sthash.x3n5PF9K.dpuf
-Beräkningsmetoderna ändras och kan leda till stora förändringar. Nigerias BNP beräkning reviderades under 2013 och ledde till att BNP skrevs upp 83%.
-Sist men inte minst så blandar man ihop BNP tillväxt och BNP per capita. Om vi pratar fattigdom så är det ju det ekonomiska värdena per person som är intressant. Om befolkningen växer med 2-3 procent per år så kommer tillväxten nästan automatiskt vara minst 2-3 procent, eftersom alla dessa nya människor kommer konsumera och producera varor och tjänster. Men de kommer förbli lika fattiga. Därför är det mer intressant att titta på BNP per person. Och då ser inte bilden av Afrika särskilt bra ut. Tillväxten de senast 20 åren är betydligt svagare än världsgenomsnittet och svagare än Sveriges.
| Tillväxt per capita 1990-2011 | % |
| Japan | 0,7 |
| Germany | 1,3 |
| United States | 1,7 |
| Spain | 1,9 |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 2 |
| Sweden | 2,2 |
| Argentina | 2,3 |
| United Republic of Tanzania | 2,5 |
| World | 2,6 |
| India | 4,9 |
| China | 9,3 |
| Källa: Världsbanken |
Det är möjligt att Afrika kommer få sin period av stark ekonomisk tillväxt när befolkningsökningen mattas av, eftersom man då kan få nytta av den demografiska övergången, dvs fler människor i produktiv ålder har färre att ta hand om. Men fram tills dess är det nog bäst att ta de afrikanska framgångshistorierna med en stor nypa salt.
Gapet mellan Anders Borgs och Ehuru Kenyattas barnbarn ökar snarare än minskar.
(ursprungligen publicerat 11 augusti 2014, uppdaterat 5 september 2014)
